Epidemiology of and programmatic response to tuberculosis in Solomon Islands: analysis of surveillance data, 2016-2022.

Objective: To identify progress and challenges in the national response to tuberculosis (TB) in Solomon Islands through an epidemiological overview of TB in the country. Methods: A descriptive analysis was conducted using the national TB surveillance data for 2016-2022. Case notifications, testing data, treatment outcomes and screening activities were analysed. Results: The number of case notifications was 343 in 2022, with an average annual reduction of the case notification rate between 2016 and 2022 of 4.7%. The highest case notification rate was reported by Honiara City Council (126/100 000 population) in 2022. The number of people with presumptive TB tested by Xpert® rapidly increased from zero in 2016 to 870 in 2022. Treatment success rate remained consistently high between 2016 and 2022, ranging from 92% to 96%. Screening for HIV and diabetes mellitus (DM) among TB patients in 2022 was 14% and 38%, respectively. Most patients (97%) were hospitalized during the intensive phase of treatment in 2022; in contrast, during the continuation phase, the proportion of patients treated at the community level increased from 1% in 2016 to 63% in 2022. Despite an increase in household contact investigations, from 381 in 2016 to 707 in 2021, the uptake of TB preventive treatment (TPT) was minimal (7% among eligible child contacts). Discussion: This epidemiological analysis in Solomon Islands reveals both notable achievements and challenges in the country's TB programme. One major achievement is a potential actual reduction in TB incidence. Challenges identified were potential underdetection of cases in rural areas, suboptimal community-based care, and insufficient contact tracing and uptake of TPT. It is crucial to address these challenges (e.g. by optimizing resources) to advance the national TB response.

Design and Modification of COVID-19 Case Investigation and Contact Tracing Interview Scripts Used by Health Departments Throughout the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to (1) document how health departments (HDs) developed COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing (CI/CT) interview scripts and the topics covered, and (2) understand how and why HDs modified those scripts. DESIGN: Qualitative analysis of CI/CT interview scripts and in-depth key informant interviews with public health officials in 14 HDs. Collected scripts represent 3 distinct points (initial, the majority of which were time stamped May 2020; interim, spanning from September 2020 to August 2021; and current, as of April 2022). SETTING: Fourteen state, local, and tribal health jurisdictions and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-six public health officials involved in leading CI/CT from 14 state, local, and tribal health jurisdictions (6 states, 3 cities, 4 counties, and 1 tribal area). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Interview script elements included in CI/CT interview scripts over time. RESULTS: Many COVID-19 CI/CT scripts were developed by modifying questions from scripts used for other communicable diseases. Early in the pandemic, scripts included guidance on isolation/quarantine and discussed symptoms of COVID-19. As the pandemic evolved, the length of scripts increased substantially, with significant additions on contact elicitation, vaccinations, isolation/quarantine recommendations, and testing. Drivers of script changes included changes in our understanding of how the virus spreads, risk factors and symptoms, new treatments, new variants, vaccine development, and adjustments to CDC's official isolation and quarantine guidance. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings offer suggestions about components to include in future CI/CT efforts, including educating members of the public about the disease and its symptoms, offering mitigation guidance, and providing sufficient support and resources to help people act on that guidance. Assessing the correlation between script length and number of completed interviews or other quality and performance measures could be an area for future study.

Model analysis and data validation of structured prevention and control interruptions of emerging infectious diseases.

The design of optimized non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is critical to the effective control of emergent outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS, A/H1N1 and COVID-19 and to ensure that numbers of hospitalized cases do not exceed the carrying capacity of medical resources. To address this issue, we formulated a classic SIR model to include a close contact tracing strategy and structured prevention and control interruptions (SPCIs). The impact of the timing of SPCIs on the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals and on the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas (i.e. implementing a dynamic zero-case policy) were analyzed numerically and theoretically. These analyses revealed that to minimize the maximum number of non-isolated infected individuals, the optimal time to initiate SPCIs is when they can control the peak value of a second rebound of the epidemic to be equal to the first peak value. More individuals may be infected at the peak of the second wave with a stronger intervention during SPCIs. The longer the duration of the intervention and the stronger the contact tracing intensity during SPCIs, the more effective they are in shortening the duration of an infectious disease outside quarantined areas. The dynamic evolution of the number of isolated and non-isolated individuals, including two peaks and long tail patterns, have been confirmed by various real data sets of multiple-wave COVID-19 epidemics in China. Our results provide important theoretical support for the adjustment of NPI strategies in relation to a given carrying capacity of medical resources.

Characterizing participants who respond to text, email, phone calls, or postcards in a SARS-CoV-2 prevalence study.

INTRODUCTION: Multiple modalities and frequencies of contact are needed to maximize recruitment in many public health surveys. The purpose of this analysis is to characterize respondents to a statewide SARS-CoV-2 testing study whose participation followed either postcard, phone outreach or electronic means of invitation. In addition, we examine how participant characteristics differ based upon the number of contacts needed to elicit participation. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis of survey data collected from participants who were randomly selected to represent Indiana residents and were invited to be tested for Covid-19 in April 2020. Participants received invitations via postcard, text/emails, and/or robocalls/texts based upon available contact information. The modality, and frequency of contacts, that prompted participation was determined by when the notification was sent and when the participant responded and subsequently registered to participate in the study. Chi square analyses were used to determine differences between groups and significant findings were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Respondents included 3,658 individuals and were stratified by postcards (7.9%), text/emails (26.5%), and robocalls/text (65.7%) with 19.7% registering after 1 contact, 47.9% after 2 contacts, and 32.4% after 3 contacts encouraging participation. Females made up 54.6% of the sample and responded at a higher rate for postcards (8.2% vs. 7.5%) and text/emails (28.1 vs. 24.6%) as compared to males (χ2 = 7.43, p = 0.025). Compared to males, females responded at a higher percentage after 1 contact (21.4 vs. 17.9%, χ2 = 7.6, p = 0.023). Those over 60 years responded most often after 2 contacts (χ2 = 27.5, p < 0.001) when compared to others at younger age groups. In regression analysis, participant sex (p = 0.036) age (p = 0.005), educational attainment (p = < 0.0001), and being motivated by "free testing" (p = 0.036) were correlated with participation in the prevalence study. DISCUSSION: Researchers should be aware that the modality of contact as well as the number of prompts used could influence differential participation in public health studies. Our findings can inform researchers developing studies that rely on selective participation by study subjects. We explore how to increase participation within targeted demographic groups using specific modalities and examining frequency of contact.

Estimating the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from the size distribution of clusters of identical pathogen sequences.

Quantifying transmission intensity and heterogeneity is crucial to ascertain the threat posed by infectious diseases and inform the design of interventions. Methods that jointly estimate the reproduction number R and the dispersion parameter k have however mainly remained limited to the analysis of epidemiological clusters or contact tracing data, whose collection often proves difficult. Here, we show that clusters of identical sequences are imprinted by the pathogen offspring distribution, and we derive an analytical formula for the distribution of the size of these clusters. We develop and evaluate an inference framework to jointly estimate the reproduction number and the dispersion parameter from the size distribution of clusters of identical sequences. We then illustrate its application across a range of epidemiological situations. Finally, we develop a hypothesis testing framework relying on clusters of identical sequences to determine whether a given pathogen genetic subpopulation is associated with increased or reduced transmissibility. Our work provides tools to estimate the reproduction number and transmission heterogeneity from pathogen sequences without building a phylogenetic tree, thus making it easily scalable to large pathogen genome datasets.

The Roles of Trust in Government and Sense of Community in the COVID-19 Contact Tracing Privacy Calculus: Mixed Method Study Using a 2-Wave Survey and In-Depth Interviews.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing technology has been adopted in many countries to aid in identifying, evaluating, and handling individuals who have had contact with those infected with COVID-19. Singapore was among the countries that actively implemented the government-led contact tracing program known as TraceTogether. Despite the benefits the contact tracing program could provide to individuals and the community, privacy issues were a significant barrier to individuals' acceptance of the program. OBJECTIVE: Building on the privacy calculus model, this study investigates how the perceptions of the 2 key groups (ie, government and community members) involved in the digital contact tracing factor into individuals' privacy calculus of digital contact tracing. METHODS: Using a mixed method approach, we conducted (1) a 2-wave survey (n=674) and (2) in-depth interviews (n=12) with TraceTogether users in Singapore. Using structural equation modeling, this study investigated how trust in the government and the sense of community exhibited by individuals during the early stage of implementation (time 1) predicted privacy concerns, perceived benefits, and future use intentions, measured after the program was fully implemented (time 2). Expanding on the survey results, this study conducted one-on-one interviews to gain in-depth insights into the privacy considerations involved in digital contact tracing. RESULTS: The results from the survey showed that trust in the government increased perceived benefits while decreasing privacy concerns regarding the use of TraceTogether. Furthermore, individuals who felt a connection to community members by participating in the program (ie, the sense of community) were more inclined to believe in its benefits. The sense of community also played a moderating role in the influence of government trust on perceived benefits. Follow-up in-depth interviews highlighted that having a sense of control over information and transparency in the government's data management were crucial factors in privacy considerations. The interviews also highlighted surveillance as the most prevalent aspect of privacy concerns regarding TraceTogether use. In addition, our findings revealed that trust in the government, particularly the perceived transparency of government actions, was most strongly associated with concerns regarding the secondary use of data. CONCLUSIONS: Using a mixed method approach involving a 2-wave survey and in-depth interview data, we expanded our understanding of privacy decisions and the privacy calculus in the context of digital contact tracing. The opposite influences of privacy concerns and perceived benefit on use intention suggest that the privacy calculus in TraceTogether might be viewed as a rational process of weighing between privacy risks and use benefits to make an uptake decision. However, our study demonstrated that existing perceptions toward the provider and the government in the contact tracing context, as well as the perception of the community triggered by TraceTogether use, may bias user appraisals of privacy risks and the benefits of contact tracing.

Comparison of the yield of two tuberculosis screening approaches among household contacts in a community setting of Silti Zone, Central Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Household contacts of tuberculosis (TB) patients are at a greater risk of infection and developing TB as well. Despite recommendations to actively screen such high-risk groups for TB, it is poorly implemented in Ethiopia. A community-based household contact screening was conducted to compare the yield of two different screening approaches and to identify factors associated with TB occurrence. METHODS: Smear-positive pulmonary TB index cases from six health facilities in six districts of Silti Zone were identified and enrolled prospectively between September 2020 and December 2022. Trained healthcare workers conducted house visits to screen household contacts for TB. WHO (World Health Organization) recommended symptom-based screening algorithms were used. The yield of screening was compared between a two-time screening at study site I and a single baseline screening at study site II, which is the current programmatic approach. Generalized estimating equation was used to run multivariate logistic regression to identify factors associated with TB occurrence. RESULTS: A total of 387 index TB cases (193 at site I and 194 at site II) with 1,276 eligible contacts were included for analysis. The TB yield of repeat screening approach did not show a significant difference compared to a single screening (2.3% at site I vs. 1.1% at site II, p < 0.072). The number needed to screen was 44 and 87 for the repeat and single screening, respectively, indicating a high TB burden in both settings. The screening algorithm for patients with comorbidities of asthma and heart failure had a 100% sensitivity, 19.1% specificity and a positive predictive value of 5.6%. Cough [AOR: 10.9, 95%CI: 2.55,46.37], fatigue [AOR: 6.1, 95%CI: 1.76,21.29], daily duration of contact with index case [AOR: 4.6, 95%CI; 1.57,13.43] and age of index cases [AOR: 0.9, 95%CI; 0.91-0.99] were associated with the occurrence of TB among household contacts. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that the yield of TB was not significantly different between one-time screening and repeat screening. Although repeat screening has made an addition to case notification, it should be practiced only if resources permit. Cough, fatigue, duration of contact and age of index cases were factors associated with TB. Further studies are needed to establish the association between older age and the risk of transmitting TB.

Barriers to adopting digital contact tracing for COVID-19: Experiences in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Digital contact tracing (DCT) was a central component of the global response to containing COVID-19. Research has raised concerns that DCT could exacerbate inequities, yet the experiences of diverse communities at greater risk from COVID-19 are typically underrepresented. METHODS: The present study aimed to understand the perceived barriers to the adoption of the app amongst Maori, Pasifika, and disabled people. Focus groups and interviews were undertaken with Maori, Pasifika, and disability sector stakeholders and community participants. RESULTS: Participants (n = 34) generally expressed willingness to utilise DCT and support its adoption within the communities. Simultaneously, participants revealed how the app could marginalise community members who struggled with the usability and those distrusting of the government's COVID-19 interventions. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight how addressing communication inequality can assist in the development of contact-tracing responses that are both effective and equitable. The study provides insights about the role of information and communication technologies as health resources. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Consulting with members of the target communities was central throughout the present study, including recommendations for potential participants, participation in interviews and sharing early findings for feedback. This study reports on focus groups and interviews with individuals from Maori and disability sectors.

Integration of Partner Notification Services at a Sexually Transmitted Infections Clinic.

OBJECTIVES: PNS is critical to prevent the spread of STIs. We evaluated the feasibility of integrating PNS into an STI clinic focused on MSM. DESIGN/METHODS: The RI STI Clinic, in partnership with the RIDOH, implemented a PNS program in 2019. Interviews with patients diagnosed with gonorrhea/ syphilis were conducted. RIDOH attempted outreach to partners identified. We utilized interview data among MSM diagnosed with gonorrhea/syphilis in clinic from 1/1/19-12/31/2021. Bivariate analyses/multivariable logistic regression were conducted. RESULTS: 341 MSM were diagnosed with gonorrhea/syphilis during the three-year period, and 233 (68%) interviews were completed. Partner information was provided in 173 (74%) interviews. At least one workable partner was provided in 110 (47%) interviews. No statistically significant associations between provision of workable partners and index patient age/race/ethnicity were found. CONCLUSIONS: PNS at an STI clinic was successful, but challenges led to suboptimal information. Research is needed to identify barriers to integrate/optimize PNS in STI clinics.

TB index case tracing in the Roma community in the Czech Republic.

Tuberculosis (TB) contact tracing and TB preventive treatment are key tools in preventing the transmission of TB with the aim of eliminating the disease. Our study seeks to demonstrate how the infection spread from an individual patient to the entire community and how proactive contact tracing facilitated prompt diagnosis and treatment. Our work was conducted as a retrospective analysis of the spread of TB infection within the Roma community in the Czech Republic, following the case of an index patient who succumbed to pulmonary TB. Several levels of care and preventive and treatment measures are outlined. Confirming the identity of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis strain was achieved using molecular methods. Among the 39 individuals examined, TB disease was detected in eight patients and TB infection was detected in six patients. The investigation of contacts within this group yielded positive results in 36% of cases, necessitating treatment. The study's findings provide evidence that actively tracing individuals at risk can lead to early detection of cases, prompt treatment, and prevention of further disease transmission. The study also indicates that the highest risk of infection occurs within the sick person's household and that young children under the age of 5 are most susceptible to falling ill.

Integration of HIV Testing in a Community Intervention for Tuberculosis Screening Among Household Contacts of Patients with Tuberculosis in Cameroon and Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: People living with HIV are considered at higher risk of developing severe forms of tuberculosis (TB) disease. Providing HIV testing to TB-exposed people is therefore critical. We present the results of integrating HIV testing into a community-based intervention for household TB contact management in Cameroon and Uganda. METHODS: Trained community health workers visited the households of index patients with TB identified in 3 urban/semiurban and 6 rural districts or subdistricts as part of a cluster-randomized trial and provided TB screening to all household contacts. Voluntary HIV counseling and testing were offered to contacts aged 5 years or older with unknown HIV status. We describe the cascade of care for HIV testing and the factors associated with the acceptance of HIV testing. RESULTS: Overall, 1983 household contacts aged 5 years or older were screened for TB. Of these contacts, 1652 (83.3%) did not know their HIV status, 1457 (88.2%) accepted HIV testing, and 1439 (98.8%) received testing. HIV testing acceptance was lower among adults than children [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.22 to 0.55], those living in household of an HIV-positive vs HIV-negative index case (aOR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.38 to 0.83), and contacts requiring a reassessment visit after the initial TB screening visit vs asymptomatic contacts (aOR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.67) and was higher if living in Uganda vs Cameroon (aOR = 4.54, 95% CI: 1.17 to 17.62) or if another contact of the same index case was tested for HIV (aOR = 9.22, 95% CI: 5.25 to 16.18). CONCLUSION: HIV testing can be integrated into community-based household TB contact screening and is well-accepted.

Effectiveness of contact tracing on networks with cliques.

Contact tracing, the practice of isolating individuals who have been in contact with infected individuals, is an effective and practical way of containing disease spread. Here we show that this strategy is particularly effective in the presence of social groups: Once the disease enters a group, contact tracing not only cuts direct infection paths but can also pre-emptively quarantine group members such that it will cut indirect spreading routes. We show these results by using a deliberately stylized model that allows us to isolate the effect of contact tracing within the clique structure of the network where the contagion is spreading. This will enable us to derive mean-field approximations and epidemic thresholds to demonstrate the efficiency of contact tracing in social networks with small groups. This analysis shows that contact tracing in networks with groups is more efficient the larger the groups are. We show how these results can be understood by approximating the combination of disease spreading and contact tracing with a complex contagion process where every failed infection attempt will lead to a lower infection probability in the following attempts. Our results illustrate how contact tracing in real-world settings can be more efficient than predicted by models that treat the system as fully mixed or the network structure as locally treelike.

Estimating household contact matrices structure from easily collectable metadata.

Contact matrices are a commonly adopted data representation, used to develop compartmental models for epidemic spreading, accounting for the contact heterogeneities across age groups. Their estimation, however, is generally time and effort consuming and model-driven strategies to quantify the contacts are often needed. In this article we focus on household contact matrices, describing the contacts among the members of a family and develop a parametric model to describe them. This model combines demographic and easily quantifiable survey-based data and is tested on high resolution proximity data collected in two sites in South Africa. Given its simplicity and interpretability, we expect our method to be easily applied to other contexts as well and we identify relevant questions that need to be addressed during the data collection procedure.

Morocco's population contact matrices: A crowd dynamics-based approach using aggregated literature data.

Estimation of contact patterns is often based on questionnaires and time-use data. The results obtained using these methods have been used extensively over the years and recently to predict the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. They have also been used to test the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distance. The latter is integrated into epidemiological models by multiplying contact matrices by control functions. We present a novel method that allows the integration of social distancing and other scenarios such as panic. Our method is based on a modified social force model. The model is calibrated using data relating to the movements of individuals and their interactions such as desired walking velocities and interpersonal distances as well as demographic data. We used the framework to assess contact patterns in different social contexts in Morocco. The estimated matrices are extremely assortative and exhibit patterns similar to those observed in other studies including the POLYMOD project. Our findings suggest social distancing would reduce the numbers of contacts by 95%. Further, we estimated the effect of panic on contact patterns, which indicated an increase in the number of contacts of 11%. This approach could be an alternative to questionnaire-based methods in the study of non-pharmaceutical measures and other specific scenarios such as rush hours. It also provides a substitute for estimating children's contact patterns which are typically assessed through parental proxy reporting in surveys.

Community Voices and Whole-Genome Sequencing for Tuberculosis: Storytelling and the Importance of Listening.

One of the primary public health functions of a tuberculosis (TB) program is to arrest the spread of infection. Traditionally, TB programs have relied on epidemiological information, gathered through contact tracing, to infer that transmission has occurred between people. The ability of drawing such inferences is extensively context dependent. Where epidemiological information has been strong, such as 2 cases of TB occurring sequentially within a single household, confidence in such inferences is high; conversely, public health authorities have been less certain about the significance of TB cases merely occurring in the same wider social group or geographic area. Many current laboratory tests for TB used globally may be sufficient to confirm a diagnosis and guide appropriate therapy but still be insufficiently precise for distinguishing two strains reliably. In short, drawing inferences regarding a chain of transmissions has always been as much art as science.

Country uptake of WHO recommendations on differentiated HIV testing services approaches: a global policy review.

OBJECTIVES: In 2015 and 2016, WHO issued guidelines on HIV testing services (HTS) highlighting recommendations for a strategic mix of differentiated HTS approaches. The policy review examines the uptake of differentiated HTS approaches recommendations in national policies. METHODS: Data were extracted from national policies published between January 2015 and June 2019. The WHO-recommended HTS approaches included facility-based testing, community-based testing, HIV self-testing and provider-assisted referral (or assisted partner notification). Other supportive recommendations include pre-test information, post-test counselling, lay provider testing and rapid testing. Descriptive analyses were conducted to examine inclusion of recommendations in national policies. RESULTS: Of 194 countries worldwide, 65 published policies were identified; 24 WHO Africa region (AFR) countries (51%, 24/47), 21 WHO European region (EUR) (40%, 21/53), 6 WHO Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) (29%, 6/21), 5 Pan-American region (AMR) (14%, 5/35), 5 Western Pacific Region (WPR) (19%, 5/27) and 4 WHO South East Asia Region (SEAR) (36%, 4/11). Only five countries included all recommendations. 63 included a minimum of one. 85% (n=55) included facility-based testing for pregnant women, 75% (n=49) facility-based testing for key populations, 74% (n=48) community-based testing for key populations, 69% (n=45) rapid testing, 57% (n=37) post-test counselling, 45% (n=29) lay provider testing, 38% (n=25) HIV self-testing, 29% (n=19) pre-test information and 25% (n=16) provider-assisted referral. The proportion in each region that included at least one recommendation were: 100% AFR (24/47), 100% EMR (6/6), 100% AMR (5/5), 100% WPR (5/5), 100% SEAR (4/4) and 95% EUR (20/21). AFR followed by EMR included the highest number of reccomendations. CONCLUSION: There was substantial variability in the uptake of the WHO-differentiated HTS recommendations. Those in EMR included the most WHO-differentiated HTS recommendation followed by AFR. Countries within AMR included the least number of recommendations. Ongoing advocacy and efforts are needed to support the uptake of the WHO-differentiated HTS recommendations in country policies as well as their implementation.

Estimating Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Transmission of the COVID-19 First Few Cases in Selenge Province, Mongolia.

BACKGROUND: Following the first locally transmitted case in Sukhbaatar soum, Selenge Province, we aimed to investigate the ultimate scale of the epidemic in the scenario of uninterrupted transmission. METHODS: This was a prospective case study following the locally modified WHO FFX cases generic protocol. A rapid response team collected data from November 14 to 29, 2020. We created a stochastic process to draw many transmission chains from this greater distribution to better understand and make inferences regarding the outbreak under investigation. RESULTS: The majority of the cases involved household transmissions (35, 52.2%), work transmissions (20, 29.9%), index (5, 7.5%), same apartment transmissions (2, 3.0%), school transmissions (2, 3.0%), and random contacts between individuals transmissions (1, 1.5%). The posterior means of the basic reproduction number of both the asymptomatic cases R 0 Asy $$ {R}_0^{Asy} $$ and the presymptomatic cases R 0 Pre $$ {R}_0^{Pre} $$ (1.35 [95% CrI 0.88-1.86] and 1.29 [95% CrI 0.67-2.10], respectively) were lower than that of the symptomatic cases (2.00 [95% Crl 1.38-2.76]). CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission across different symptom statuses and underscores the importance of early identification and isolation of symptomatic cases in disease control. Our approach, which combines detailed contact tracing data with advanced statistical methods, can be applied to other infectious diseases, facilitating a more nuanced understanding of disease transmission dynamics.

Taiwan ended third COVID-19 community outbreak as forecasted.

Accurate forecasting of community outbreaks is crucial for governments to allocate healthcare resources correctly and implement suitable non-pharmaceutical interventions. Additionally, companies must address critical questions about stock and staff management. Society's key concern is when businesses and organizations can resume normal operations. Between December 31st 2019 and 2021, Taiwan experienced three separate COVID-19 community outbreaks with significant time intervals in between, suggesting that each outbreak eventually came to an end. We identified the ratio of the 7-day average of local & unknown confirmed to suspected cases as the key control variable and forecasted the end of the third outbreak by the exponential model. We forecasted the end of the third outbreak on Aug. 16th with threshold ratios of 1.2 · 10 - 4 . The real observations crossed the threshold on Aug. 27th, eleven days later than forecasted, with the last case of the third outbreak confirmed and quarantined on Sept. 20th. This demonstrated the accuracy of the proposed forecasting method in predicting the end of a local outbreak. Furthermore, we highlight that the ratio reflects the effectiveness of contact tracing. Effective contact tracing together with testing and isolation of infected individuals is crucial for ending community outbreaks.

Using timeliness metrics for household contact tracing and TB preventive therapy in the private sector, India.

Although screening of household contacts (HHCs) of TB patients and provision of TB preventive therapy (TPT) is a key intervention to end the TB epidemic, their implementation globally is dismal. We assessed whether introducing a '7-1-7' timeliness metric was workable for implementing HHC screening among index patients with pulmonary TB diagnosed by private providers in Chennai, India, between November 2022 and March 2023.This was an explanatory mixed-methods study (quantitative-cohort and qualitative-descriptive).There were 263 index patients with 556 HHCs. In 90% of index patients, HHCs were line-listed within 7 days of anti-TB treatment initiation. Screening outcomes were ascertained in 48% of HHCs within 1 day of line-listing. Start of anti-TB treatment, TPT or a decision to receive neither was achieved in 57% of HHC within 7 days of screening. Overall, 24% of screened HHCs in the '7-1-7' period started TPT compared with 16% in a historical control (P < 0.01). Barriers to achieving '7-1-7' included HHC reluctance for evaluation or TPT, refusal of private providers to prescribe TPT and reliance on facility-based screening of HHCs instead of home visits by health workers for screening.Introduction of a timeliness metric is a workable intervention that adds structure to HHC screening and timely management..

Partner notification service utilization and associated factors among clients attending anti-retroviral therapy clinics of public health facilities in Gimbi Town, West Ethiopia, 2023: a facility-based mixed-method cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Partner Notification Service is among the strategies used to conduct targeted Human Immunodeficiency Virus Testing Service by obtaining information about sexual contacts of index clients to refer for testing. But most people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus are still unaware of their status, including Ethiopia. Limited studies are available on the magnitude of partner notification service utilization and associated factors in Ethiopia. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the magnitude of partner notification service utilization and associated factors among people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus attending anti-retroviral therapy clinics of public health facilities in Gimbi town, West Ethiopia. METHODS: A facility-based mixed-method cross-sectional study design was used. Total of 455 study participants were selected by systematic random sampling for quantitative data and health workers were purposively selected for qualitative data until saturation of ideas was reached. The study was conducted from December 1, 2022 to January 30, 2023. Structured questionnaires and key informant interview guides were used for data collection. Quantitative data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science version 25. Open code 4.02 software was used for qualitative data analysis. Frequencies and proportions were used to summarize descriptive statistics. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression was used to identify associated factors then variables with a p value < 0.05 were declared to have an association with the dependent variable. RESULT: Exactly 298 (65.5%) of the study participants were notified their HIV status to their sexual partners. Factors associated with Partner Notification Service Utilization were depression AOR: 0.12 (95% CI: 0.07, 0.20), urban settlers AOR: 2.21 (95% CI: 1.2, 3.83), fear of support loss AOR: 0.24 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.40) and intimate partner violence AOR: 0.55 (95% CI: 0.31, 0.97). From qualitative part of this study, factors associated to Partner Notification service utilization were fear of stigma, discrimination and fear of divorce. CONCLUSION: Two-third of the study participants were utilized partner notification service, and efforts are important to prevent depression and intimate partner violence. Local government bodies and stakeholders should implement economic strengthening and strategies to address the rural community for HIV/AIDS prevention. Promotion of supportive and inclusive environment for PLHIV should also considered as way to increase PNS utilization.